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The pound’s slide is about more than Brexit
英镑的下跌不仅仅与英国退欧有关
Worries about a trade war and the domestic economy play a role too
对贸易战和国内经济的顾虑也发挥了作用
IN THE WEE hours of June 24th the pound plunged. The unexpected victory of the Leave campaign in the Brexit referendum meant sterling lost 7% in a single day. Three years later the pound is falling once again. It is now at a two-year low, having fallen by 5% against the dollar since April—and 1% in the past month, the worst performance of any big currency (see chart). Many Britons ascribe any movement in the pound to the twists and turns of the Brexit saga. The cause of its recent slide is, however, more complicated.
Sterling has been weaker since the referendum because the prospect of Brexit has led economists to cut their forecasts for economic growth. It reached a low in October when Theresa May, the prime minister, promised a “hard” Brexit. Yet it appreciated fairly steadily in and .
This was in part because the economy was surprisingly strong. GDP grew only slightly more slowly in -18 than before the referendum. Unemployment fell to multi-decade lows. Despite Mrs May’s best efforts, traders came to believe that the most likely outcome was a “soft” Brexit—that is, a customs union with the European Union and membership of the single market—and thus less economic harm.
The pound’s recent fall started in April, shortly after the EU agreed to delay Brexit to October 31st. Some traders worried that it would brook no further delay. Yet global factors played a greater role. Around May traders began to panic about the effect of a trade war between America and China on global economic growth. That prompted “derisking”—moving assets out of countries highly reliant on inflows of foreign capital. Britain, which runs a large current-account deficit, saw its currency depreciate. But so did Australia and New Zealand, points out Kamal Sharma of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Both countries also run large current-account deficits.
Since then worries about the trade war have eased—to be replaced by a fresh concern, the health of Britain’s economy. In June the statistics office alarmed analysts by revealing that GDP had fallen in April by 0.4%, although May was better. Other survey >
Sterling’s fall has accelerated in the past week, as the two contenders to replace Mrs May have vied to sound more macho on the need to leave the EU on October 31st, with or without a withdrawal deal. Even now, few if any analysts believe that a no-deal exit is the most likely outcome. But many are on the brink of changing their mind. If no-deal starts to be priced in, the pound will have much further to fall.
【原文大意】
在6月24日清晨，英镑曾经历过暴跌。而在英国退欧公投中，脱欧阵营意外获胜，这也意味着英镑在一天内下跌7%。三年后，英镑再次下跌了。
它现在处于两年来的最低点，自4月以来对美元已经下跌了5%，而在上个月仅仅一个月就更是下跌了1%，是所有主要货币中表现最差的。许多英国人将英镑的任何波动归因于英国退欧传奇的曲折经历。然而，最近英镑下跌的原因其实更为复杂。
自退欧公投以来，英镑一直走弱，英国退欧的前景导致经济学家下调了对经济增长的预期。在10月，当英国首相特里萨•梅承诺“硬”退欧时，这一比例降至低点。而在和，英镑却在相当稳定地升值。
这在一定程度上是因为经济出奇地强劲。英国-的GDP增速仅略低于公投前，而失业率则降至数十年来的最低点。尽管梅尽了最大的努力，贸易商们还是相信最有可能的结果是一个“温和的”脱欧——即与欧盟建立关税同盟并加入单一市场——从而减少经济损失。
英镑最近的下跌始于4月，就在欧盟同意将英国退欧推迟到10月31日之后不久。一些交易员担心，英镑无法容忍进一步的拖延。然而，全球化因素发挥了更大的作用。5月左右，贸易商开始担心中美贸易战对全球经济增长的影响。
这引起了“风险规避（de-前缀为away from 意，指逃离）”——将资产从高度依赖外资流入的国家转移出去。英国经常账户赤字巨大，货币贬值。但是美银美林的Kamal Sharma指出，澳大利亚和新西兰也是如此。两国都有巨额活期账户赤字。
自那以后，人们对贸易战的担忧有所缓解，取而代之的是对英国经济健康状况的新担忧。6月份，英国国家统计局发布的数据让分析家们感到震惊，虽然5月份的数据要好一些。但4月份的GDP已经下降了0.4%。
其他调查数据显示，英国今年第二季度没有经济增长。此外，一系列数据显示，国内通胀的衡量指标较为疲软，这降低了英国央行加息的可能性。
英镑在过去一周加速贬值，因为在10月31日脱欧的必要性上，无论是否达成脱欧协议，取代梅姨的两位竞争者都竞相表现出更大的男子气概。
即便是现在，也很少有分析师认为，无协议脱欧是最可能的结果。但许多人即将改变主意。如果无协议脱欧尘埃落定，英镑将会进一步下跌。
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